In every game or race, there is a favourite and an underdog. Of course, the favourite is such for a reason and is more likely to win than the underdog, or they wouldn’t be the favourite in the first place.
Despite this, the astute Australian punter can exploit the underdog to place a potentially profitable wager, if they are sharp enough.
Understand the Handicap System
Having a very good knowledge of exactly how the handicap or point spread system works is your first step in being able to exploit the underdog. The entire system was devised in order to make games fairer in terms of betting and to encourage punters to bet on the less promising team.
The Australian punter who knows exactly how this works, and can make use of it for each game, stands the chance of placing some very successful wagers.
Bookies know that most people place bets on the favourite. From a phycological point of view, no one likes losing or backing a loser. Thus, the odds are most definitely in favour of the favourite. This being said, if you do back the favourite and win the chances are that your profit won’t be outstanding as most of the betting world would also have backed the favourite, and bookies don’t like going out of business.
The odds against the underdog are usually much higher, and although this makes the bet much riskier it also makes it much more lucrative should you get it right. Many an overjoyed Australian punter has watched the underdog triumph, and his bank balance increase dramatically because of a clever wager.
Cover The Vigorish
The term vigorish means the percentage that all bookies charge on all bets. As with any business, betting sites and bookies need to make a profit in order to stay in business and be able to offer wagers to punters.
If a punter places a pair of wagers on the favourite, it is necessary to win more than half the time in order to cover the initial wager as well as the vigorish. Typically, a percentage of 50% to 60% is needed to turn even a small profit when betting on the favourite.
The underdog bet, however, is a different animal. Since the odds are much higher against the underdog winning, a pair of bets on an underdog will reap rewards with only a 40% to 45% success rate. This theoretical betting strategy is enough to cover both initial wagers, plus the vigorish as well as allowing the punter to leave with a fatter wallet than they arrived with.
All Australian punters should develop the skill to be able to spot a so called home dog. A home dog is a team, which usually would not have a hope of beating their opponent, but since they are playing on their home ground they perform beyond anyone’s expectations.
Home dogs are often overlooked by bookies and betting sites, setting up the sharp Australian punter for a profitable outside bet. This doesn’t exactly mean that you’ll be betting on a dog like in greyhound betting but rather the team playing at home.
Aside from the obvious profit to be gained by placing a successful underdog bet, there is a certain emotional reward associated with it as well. Something about backing a team which no one thinks will win, and then proving them wrong makes one feel warm and fuzzy inside.
It imparts a kind of honour and integrity when done successfully, and is a lot more fun than just following the crowd.